Is the room vibrating or is that just my energy level/coffee hitting? Probably a little bit of both because what is the market doing in Ellensburg Washington? It’s July 2022 and things are changing!
Let’s have a little kiki, serve up some tea, dish the dirt the market (you’re picking up what I’m puttin’ down right?). The last two years of the real estate market have been abnormal (check on your friends who are agents/lenders/title/escrow/inspectors… we are exhausted!). So what’s happening now? Why are we STILL talking about real estate?
What are the Headlines Saying?
While you will hear and read headlines that the real estate market is slowing down, I have to ask… is that a bad thing? Whether you were at the grocery store, your family’s for dinner, the post office, or just trying to buy a snickers bar (because you’re not yourself when you’re hungry… I get it), how quickly homes were selling as well as bidding wars were a constant state of conversation. Going 120 MPH isn’t healthy for any marketplace for a sustained period of time and so eventually things have to slow down. Now, compared to the market pre-2020, we are still going 80 MPH but because everyone is accustomed to our new normal (120 MPH) the market speed now feels… slow… scary. Unchartered. Why is the market changing?
There are a couple key factors for why the market is starting to shift: interest rates, inventory, funding, and the stock market all have major impacts on supply, demand, and consumer sentiment (aka do we feel confident in the market or terrified of this/that/the other thing). As inflation insecurities rise so to do interest rates, which in turn will curb the demand of buyers. This happened to coincide with an increase in supply nationwide so now we have a more balanced amount of supply (homes for sale) and demand (buyers looking for a home).
What Do the Numbers Say?
There are three key metrics that I will be watching to truly know what the market is doing in Ellensburg Washington?
Closed Sales
Are we fairly close to the previous year? If so, doesn’t that mean the market is still moving well? Hint hint: yes it does! Looking at June of 2022 compared to the previous year, we have closed MORE residential sales.
Days on Market Until Sale
*this means how many days on market was the home listed/active before there was an accepted offer that changed the status to either Pending Inspection/Pending/Contingent/etc? We are on pace with last year but I will be very curious to see what metrics July holds. I predict our days on market will be higher than July 2021 (let’s see?).
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Here is the difference maker that is making folks think the market is “slowing down.” Comparing June 2021 to June 2022, there are 47.5% MORE homes on the market to contend with. My prediction is this is going to result in homes being on market longer than the norm we have become accustomed to (list on a Thursday and under contract by Monday/Tuesday). For some homes that will still be on the table (think under $350Kish).
For the majority of others, I’m seeing buyer sentiment that supports closer to 10-14 days on the market prior to going under contract. If you beat that timeline? Awesome! If you hit that timeline? Awesome! If you are still on the market after two weeks with minimal showings? The market, the buyers, and their agents have spoken! Whatever that property is likely is priced too high, has adverse conditions that make it less desirable, or both. Time to adjust and regroup.
